@Shadowzz It seems you included everything that has trees as lumber base, that's simply wrong.
Popular lumber bases: you might think that something is a LB but its really not if no1 ever LB there.
Scouting is stupidly easy, this is why you need to build stall walls and be able to base under 1 minutes.
I also find it easy to keep track of where builders are/going to, but this is more deduction than scouting.
First thing,
FOW walls pathing is extremely useful and accurate. It can be used all over the map to find everything.Second thing, I will include some Pathing from gold mound in here, note that midwalls will lead into false positive.
The rest of the pathing will
never lead into false positive.
Yes, I have tested all of the pathing and No I don't think it's ridiculous game knowledge.
Third thing, Deduction. If the LB isnt where you pearled, then its at the other pearling spot. You deduce someone built his LB top left because he came mid from that direction. Why not also deduce pearl spots? I also believe this isn't some ridiculous game knowledge.
Including the bad ones & less used and assuming normal pathingArriving from top right: 6 LB, 1 pearl for 3 LB and 1 pearl for 1 LB + Pathing from gold mound for 2 (1 being the most popular for that corner) required to scout everything. 50% chance but if not in first pearl spot then its in the second pearl spot.
Arriving bot right: 8 LB, 2 (1 being the most popular) can be found with Pathing from gold mound, Everything is spaced out but almost in a line, dont pearl here. Instead, go walk between euro & vag and use Pathing to find 5 of them. The remaining one can be found midway from gold mound to there via Pathing.
Arriving from top left: Few people go top left. 7 or 8 LB, only 2 are commonly used and 1 can be found with Pathing from gold mound. 1 pearl for 3 and 1 pearl for 1. If not in first pearl spot then its in the other one 50% chance. The remaining two can be found by moving midway from gold mound to the first LB on the left and using Pathing or by pearling it. This increase the previous spot to 100% chance. All but 1 top left LB can be found by moving between fountain base and first lb on the left with the use of Pathing.
Arriving from bot left: 6 or 7 LB, 1 pearl for 4 LB, 1 pearl for 2. I don't think Pathing from gold mound work on any of those LB. Move midway from gold mound to bot left and use Pathing to find 7 LB.
Top left, Top right and Bot right Corner bases and bot mid are mostly immune to pathing (Unless you're standing next to it, duh).
If you use pathing and know where to pearl, there is very little luck involved. Otherwise there is some luck in scouting (Nowhere near what you said IMO).
I agree that the time of arrival depends on the skill of the person. However, if someone is too early at gold mound for him to LB in a corner, then he didn't LB in a corner.
This can be used later in the game aswell: If you notice that a builder is only gone from mid 1 minute after killing his LB, then he didnt LB far from mid.
You cannot deduce where he built his LB if it takes him a long time to come mid, but you can deduce it if he took a very short time to come mid.